At present, the epidemic blockade measures have caused a devastating impact on the Indian economy. According to the Goldman Sachs report, India will experience the worst economic recession in history. It is expected that India’s GDP will shrink by 45% in the second quarter, which is much higher than its previous forecast of 20%. You know, the last time India's economy contracted was in the distant 1980s, forty years ago.
At the same time, as the first country in the world to fight against the epidemic, and also the country that first embarked on the restoration of the economy, China's experience in fighting against the epidemic has always been regarded as a rule. The Chinese market has also been regarded as a necessary option to boost the economy. However, in this situation, India did the opposite, repeatedly making unexpected moves.
7th this year! India launches investigation on some commodities in China
According to reports, on May 20, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India issued an announcement saying that at the application of the Indian Carbon Black Manufacturers Association, the second anti-dumping sunset review investigation was initiated on rubber carbon black originating in or imported from China. What is the sunset review, that is, India’s earlier execution period for charging Chinese goods for five years has expired. In order to continue to extend the charging period, another review is initiated, and during the review period, the originally due fee regulations continue to be valid.
In accordance with established practice, after launching an investigation on some Chinese commodities, India will take measures to charge an additional fee for Chinese commodities on the grounds of protecting the domestic market, further preventing Chinese commodities from being sold on the local market at low prices. A voice pointed out that this move will undoubtedly affect the export competitiveness of related industries to India. In fact, this is not the first time India has launched a survey of some commodities in China.
According to the statistics of Jinshi, since this year, India has applied for domestic enterprises to aniline, fluororubber, PVC decorative film, copper and copper alloy rolled materials, ciprofloxacin hydrochloride, natural mica originating or imported from China. Pearlescent Industrial Pigments and other products launched an investigation. Plus this time, rough statistics, India has taken measures against some commodities in China seven times this year. A voice pointed out that India's move is undoubtedly "self-defeating" its own economic vitality.
154% increase! China has purchased 30.81 million tons of Indian iron ore
At present, India is scorching its languishing economy. In order to stimulate its own economic recovery, India has announced that it will launch a package of economic stimulus packages totaling 20 trillion Indian rupees (about 1.88 trillion yuan). 10% of India’s GDP. In fact, the Chinese market is the key option for the Indian economy to "reverse the world". This year's year-on-year increase in trade exports to China can buffer the impact of the epidemic on the Indian economy.
Taking iron ore as an example, according to the latest data released by India, in the 2019 fiscal year (April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020), Indian iron ore exports reached 36.428 million tons, an increase of 125% year-on-year. Among them, the export of iron ore to China was 30.819 million tons, an increase of 154% year-on-year, accounting for 84.6% of India’s total iron ore exports. China has therefore become the largest buyer of Indian iron ore.
However, as the country with the largest demand for iron ore in the world and the country with the largest imports of iron ore, the Chinese market has always been a hot spot for major mining countries, and India will also face many competitors in the iron ore market in China. For example, Brazil, which has gradually recovered from the dam-break incident, has also begun to restart and increase the supply of iron ore to China. In April this year, the amount of iron ore exported to China was 16.393 million tons, an increase of 103% year-on-year.
All in all, India has frequently taken measures against Chinese commodities, and the bad signals it has released may cause Chinese buyers to turn to other markets.
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